• 【光华讲坛】Inconsistent Recommendations and Earnings Forecasts: Analysts under Mutual Fund Pressure(基金分仓关系下关联分析师的乐观评级与盈利预测不一致性研究)
    发布时间:2022-05-23 查看次数:

    光华讲坛


    主题:Inconsistent Recommendations and Earnings Forecasts: Analysts under Mutual Fund Pressure(基金分仓关系下关联分析师的乐观评级与盈利预测不一致性研究)

    主讲人:西南财经大学会计学院 冯源

    主持人:西南财经大学会计学院 王雨诗

    时间:2022年5月24日(周二)10:00—11:30

    地点:腾讯会议:928-419-476 会议密码:1234

    主办单位:会计学院 科研处


    主讲人简介

    冯源,西南财经大学会计学院副教授,主要研究兴趣为机构投资者、资本结构、网络借贷、关联分析师等。


    摘要

    We examine the impact of the pressure from mutual funds on the inconsistency of recommendations and earnings forecasts issued by affiliated analysts. Linking analysts’ reports and mutual funds by mutual fund positions and brokerage house-firm relationships, we show that the pressure can lead to significant recommendation-forecast inconsistency. The result suggests that the inconsistent reports are caused by the interest of brokerage houses who get commission paid by mutual funds. Negative abnormal returns and low earnings forecast accuracy are associated with the inconsistency of affiliated analysts’ reports and over-optimism of recommendations. The findings still hold even if the analyst is a star analyst.

    本文使用2003-2020年A股非金融上市公司的分析师报告和基金持仓数据,研究基金分仓关系对券商旗下关联分析师的预测和评级的影响。结果表明:基金分仓关联关系会导致关联分析师的乐观评级与盈利预测不一致,且基金分仓关联关系越强,关联分析师的预测不一致性越强。当关联分析师的乐观评级与盈利预测不一致时,关联分析师的乐观评级导致了显著为负的长期市场超额收益,且其盈利预测准确度更低。进一步研究发现,即使是新财富上榜的明星关联分析师发布的盈利预测也不会更准确。本文的研究结论对强化券商“防火墙”制度和完善分析师评价体系提供了参考。