光华讲坛
主题:Quantitative economic history of the Qing Dynasty and modern banking development of China (清代量化经济史与中国现代银行的发展)
主讲人:苏州大学 顾乾坤 副教授
主持人:西南财经大学 黄健 副教授
时间:2024-6-21 10:00-11:00
会议地点:西南财经大学柳林校区诚正楼650会议室
主办单位:新时代中国特色财务与会计理论创新与方法体系研究团队 数字经济重大基础理论与实践创新研究团队 会计学院 科研处
主讲人简介:
顾乾坤是香港中文大学商学院金融学博士,苏州大学商学院副教授。他的研究方向包括公司财务、家族企业、经济史。顾乾坤的研究成果发表在Journal of Law and Economics,International Review of Financial Analysis, Accounting and Finance,Economic Modelling,China Journal of Accounting Research,Finance Research Letters,Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,Asia-Pacific Economic History Review,经济管理,新财富等国内外期刊。他主持一项国家自然科学基金,参与多项国家级和省部级课题。获得第五届香樟金融学论坛优秀论文奖,第五届“中国工业经济学会青年杯”提名奖。担任Economic Modelling, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Pacific Basin Finance Journal, Finance Research Letters, China Journal of Accounting Research,China Journal of Accounting Studies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Pacific Economic Review,Economic Analysis and Policy,《经济管理》等刊物的匿名审稿人。他还是Family Glory家族企业研究助理,参与多家上市家族企业的商业咨询。
内容简介:
The Qing Dynasty, being the most recent feudal dynasty in China's history, marked the beginning of the transformative period of China's modern history at its end. Quantifying the history of the Qing Dynasty and examining its impact on China's financial development is pivotal for understanding the relative lag in the development of China's modern financial markets and the Great Divergence between China and the West. Using modern banking data from 1896 to 1936 as a measure of financial development, we analyze the effect of the literary policy changes by comparing regions that involved in the literary policy changes with adjacent regions that did not. The results reveal that the literary policy changes significantly reduced the number of modern banks, and this effect remains significant even after controlling for geographic, economic, cultural, and political variables. By using the distance to the hometowns of four prominent scholars from the late Ming and early Qing periods as an instrumental variable, we find the effect of the literary policy remains robust. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the impact of the literary policy was primarily achieved through the weakening of social capital and the reduction of external financing demand, which further increased market interest rates and the incidence of emergency loans. Additionally, our findings suggest that the mitigating effects of modern technological shocks (the telegraph and the postal network) on the negative impact of the literary policy changes are effective in the short term but not in the long term.
清代是距今最近的封建王朝,清朝末年拉开了波澜壮阔的中国近现代史。量化清代历史,研究其是否对中国金融发展产生影响,对于理解中国现代金融市场发展的相对滞后以及中国与西方之间的“大分流”具有重要意义。使用1896年至1936年现代银行数据作为金融发展的衡量指标,我们比较了在清代涉及文字政策变更的地区与相邻未涉及文字政策变更的地区,以研究清代政策对现今金融发展的效应。结果显示,政策发生变更的地区显著减少了现代银行的数量,即使在控制地理、经济、文化和政治变量后,这一负面影响依然显著。通过使用晚明和清初四位著名学者的故乡距离作为工具变量,我们发现文字政策变更的影响仍然稳健。机制分析表明,文字政策变更的影响主要通过削弱社会资本和减少外部融资需求实现,这进一步提高了市场利率和应急贷款的发生率。此外,我们的研究还表明,现代技术冲击(如电报和邮政网络)在短期内对文字政策变更影响的缓解效果显著,但在长期内则不明显。