主题：When Analyst Repeat, Do Investors Listen?（投资者是否会听取分析师的重复信息？）

主讲人：Longwood University 赵益巍助理教授

主持人：西南财经大学会计学院 杨雨晴副教授

时间：2025年6月23日（周一）10:00-12:00

地点：柳林校区诚正楼650会议室

主办单位：数字经济重大基础理论与实践创新研究团队 新时代中国特色财务与会计理论创新与方法体系研究团队 会计学院 科研处

主讲人简介：

赵益巍是Longwood University商学院的助理教授。他的主要研究兴趣包括金融分析师行为及相应的市场反应。他在美国夏威夷大学获得博士学位。Yiwei Zhao is an Assistant Professor of Finance in the College of Business and Economics at Longwood University. His primary research interests include financial analyst behavior and corresponding market reactions.

内容摘要：

This lecture will discuss financial analysts earnings forecast reiteration in this paper. The majority of earnings forecasts issued by sell-side equity analysts conclude with a reiteration of the analyst's existing forecast for a firm. However, prior research predominantly focuses on earnings forecast revisions, often overlooking the significance of reiterations. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of earnings forecast reiterations for S&P 100 firms during the 2006–2016 period, manually collected from Bloomberg, we examine whether these reiterations carry informational value. Our findings reveal that reiterated forecasts exhibit smaller earnings forecast errors and reduced negative biases. Furthermore, they are associated with positive stock market reactions. Firms receiving a greater number of reiterated forecasts experience stronger price reactions during both announcement and post-announcement periods. These results indicate that analyst reiterations of prior forecasts create a “reiteration effect”, consistent with a cognitive bias wherein investors perceive reiterated forecasts as more credible and truthful.

本次讲座将讨论金融分析师的预测值重复行为。卖方分析师的大部分预测值都包含重复预测，但是之前的大部分文献都忽略重复预测，而只关注预测值的变化。我们在彭博数据库里手动搜集了S&P 100 2006年到2016年的数据，并使用这些数据来检验重复预测是否包含信息价值。我们发现重复预测降低了预测误差，并且降低了负向偏差。同时重复预测和正向市场反应相关，得到更多重复预测的公司在被预测时和被预测之后都有更强的正向市场反应。这些结果显示重复预测体现了“重复效应”，这与投资者将分析师重复预测作为更可信的结果相吻合。