我院陈磊教授与合作者的论文《Downside risk similarity and M&As》在国际会计学顶刊Contemporary Accounting Research正式线上发表。

Abstract：Downside risks are ubiquitous and can profoundly impact firm operations and valuation. Failure to adequately assess and manage target firms' downside risks hinders acquirers’ ability to integrate and manage these businesses. This article introduces a novel measure of firms' downside risk similarity (DRS) based on risk factor descriptions and examines its implications for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) outcomes. We first validate that the measure is distinct from existing similarity measures and that it captures similarity in firms’ potential significant downside. Using the new measure, we find that the market reacts more positively to deals in which acquirers and targets share more downside risks. Additional analyses show that this beneficial effect of DRS is driven primarily by risks that are idiosyncratic or firm-specific, consistent with these risks requiring acquirers’ relevant expertise to manage. Last, we document that in deals with more similar downside risks, the acquirers experience fewer risk profile changes and are less likely to suffer from adverse outcomes, such as deal-specific goodwill impairment, divestitures, and significant profitability declines. Overall, we conclude that DRS plays a significant role in the M&A process.

摘要：下行风险普遍存在，并且会对企业的运营和估值产生深远影响。未能充分评估和管理目标企业的下行风险会阻碍收购方整合和管理这些业务的能力。本文基于风险因素描述，提出了一种衡量企业下行风险相似性（Downside Risk Similarity, DRS）的新方法，并探讨其对并购（M&A）结果的影响。我们首先验证了该指标不同于现有的相似性衡量方法，并证明它能够捕捉企业潜在重大下行风险的相似性。利用这一新指标，我们发现，当收购方与目标企业的下行风险更相似时，市场对交易的反应更加积极。进一步的分析表明，这种DRS的积极作用主要由企业特有或个体化的风险驱动，这与这些风险需要收购方具备相关专业知识来管理的观点一致。最后，我们发现在下行风险更相似的交易中，收购方的风险状况变化更少，且更不容易遭遇不利后果，例如交易特定的商誉减值、业务剥离以及显著的盈利能力下降。总体而言，我们的研究表明，DRS在并购过程中起着重要作用。

陈 磊

西南财经大学会计学院教授、博士生导师

入选财政部国际化高端会计人才计划、四川省“天府万人计划”、四川省学术和技术带头人后备人选、西南财经大学“光华百人计划”等人才项目，并为全国高校黄大年式教师团队成员。主持国家自然科学基金项目、国家社会科学基金项目及四川省哲学社会科学基金项目。研究成果发表于CAR、JBFA、JBE、CGIR、EFM、A&F、《会计研究》等中英文期刊。其工作论文曾在SFS Cavalcade North America、NBER Conference on Chinese Economy、CICF、ABFER、MIT-Asia Conference in Accounting、FARS、HARC、AAA、CFSF金融学者论坛等会议上宣讲。担任四川省会计学会管理会计专业委员会副秘书长、大型国有控股集团外部董事、多家上市公司独立董事。